Will Bitcoin Reach $100k In 2024? Analyzing The Future Of BTC

As we approach the tail end of 2024, it’s clear that Bitcoin has maintained a bullish momentum throughout the year. At the time of writing this article, the largest cryptocurrency is hovering around the $58,000 price point, which is a hefty 21% decline from its March all-time high of $73,737. Despite this decline, Bitcoin’s price is still 124% higher than last year's. 

However, the current market sentiment reflects a cautious perception by investors. With the Fear and Greed Index showing ‘Fear’, there is a strong assumption that BTC had reached its yearly peak in March, driven by the enthusiasm around Bitcoin ETFs. 

So, the main question is, will Bitcoin reach its much anticipated $100k mark this year, or will it be another gruelling wait for the crypto community? This article will analyze the expert opinion on BTC’s price point in recent months and the token’s current price chart. Let’s dive in.
 

Key takeaways 

• Bitcoin’s bullish momentum in 2024: Despite a decline from its March peak, Bitcoin’s price remains significantly higher than last year, fueled by ETF optimism and the 2024 halving.
• Market sentiment: While optimism persists, the Fear and Greed Index indicates cautious investor sentiment, with concerns about whether Bitcoin can reach $100,000 this year.
• Key opinions: Industry leaders suggest Bitcoin could reach $100,000 due to halving, ETF inflows, and favorable macroeconomic conditions, but market volatility remains a challenge.
• Impact of 2024 halving: The halving has reinforced Bitcoin's scarcity but had a muted immediate impact due to other market dynamics.
• ETF inflows: Data shows fluctuating sentiment with significant inflows and outflows, reflecting both optimism and caution among investors.
• Bottom line: Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in 2024 is possible but hinges on multiple factors, including regulatory developments, the US election, economic conditions, and investor sentiment.

Market optimism driven by ETFs and monetary policy

Bitcoin ETFs are still driving optimism around the token’s price point, despite the recent dip. In an interview with The Economic Times, Edul Patel, CEO of Mudrex, believes the bullish trend could persist, potentially pushing Bitcoin to this milestone by year-end. The growing interest in Bitcoin ETFs and reduced supply due to the recent halving underpins this optimism. Additionally, a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve could further boost Bitcoin’s price as investors seek alternatives to traditional assets.

Standard Chartered Bank has also joined the optimistic chorus, maintaining a price target of $100,000 for Bitcoin within the next year. According to their analysis, the ongoing bull market could propel Bitcoin to $120,000 before a potential plateau. The bank's forecast adds credibility to the growing belief that Bitcoin is on the cusp of a significant breakthrough. 

The bank’s forecast also largely hinges on the US election. According to them, Nvidea’s rallying share prices and Bitcoin being a key policy focus in the upcoming election will likely drive the token to its much-anticipated price point. 

Standard Chartered doubles down on its prediction that bitcoin will reach $150,000 by the end of the year https://t.co/6z72xxqCFW

— CNBC (@CNBC) April 25, 2024

Most users think Bitcoin is only getting started

A survey conducted by Real Research reveals that 68.44% of respondents believe Bitcoin will hit $100,000 in 2024. Notably, over 27% attribute this potential rise to the influx of Bitcoin ETFs. Additionally, large-scale investors, or 'Bitcoin Whales', have resumed accumulating significant amounts of Bitcoin, signaling confidence in its future price surge. This accumulation trend, combined with Bitcoin’s scarcity due to halving, adds fuel to the ongoing rally.

So, the path to $100,000 is not without challenges, but the confluence of favorable market conditions, institutional interest, and Bitcoin’s inherent scarcity makes it a plausible scenario.

How did the 2024 Bitcoin halving impact its price? 

The 2024 Bitcoin halving, which occurred in April, has had a significant but somewhat complex impact on the cryptocurrency market. Historically, Bitcoin halving events have been associated with substantial price increases in the months following the event due to the reduced supply of new Bitcoin entering circulation. This scarcity effect often triggers bullish sentiment among investors and drives demand higher.

However, the immediate impact of the 2024 halving has been less dramatic than in previous cycles. Bitcoin's price remained relatively stable, around $63,000 right after the halving, partly because much of the price rally had already occurred in anticipation of the event, driven by factors like the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. This suggests that while the halving remains a critical event in Bitcoin's long-term price trajectory, other factors like institutional adoption and macroeconomic conditions are playing a more prominent role in determining its short-term price movements this time around.

Looking forward, the reduced issuance rate following the halving reinforces Bitcoin's scarcity narrative, potentially attracting more investors over time. Miners, however, may face challenges due to the reduced rewards, which could increase their reliance on transaction fees to maintain profitability. This could lead to increased network fees, especially during periods of high demand.

Overall, while the 2024 halving underscores Bitcoin's deflationary nature and long-term investment appeal, its immediate impact has been tempered by other market dynamics, suggesting that the road to significant price milestones, such as $100,000, may be influenced more by broader market conditions than by the halving event alone.

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows 

Since the SEC approval in January, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US stock market have seen total net assets of $54.35bn, representing 4.65% of Bitcoin's market cap. At the time of writing, the daily total net inflow is $36m, which shows a positive attitude from institutional investors towards the largest cryptocurrency. However, we need to look at the weekly inflow trend to understand the broader implications of the Bitcoin ETF market. 
 

Based on the weekly inflow data from May to August 2024, the following key trends and insights can be observed to understand the changing sentiment in the market:

1. High volatility in inflows: Data from SoSo Value shows significant fluctuations in the weekly total net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs. Notably, there was a massive inflow of $948.31m on 19 May 2024, followed by another substantial inflow of $535.23m on 26 July 2024. However, these periods of large inflows were followed by weeks of outflows, such as the $580.63m outflow on 14 June 2024, and the $544.09m outflow on 21 June 2024. This volatility indicates that while there are periods of strong positive sentiment, there are also moments of significant caution or profit-taking.
2. Positive sentiment leading to accumulation: Despite the volatility, the cumulative total net inflow remained positive throughout, growing from $11.66bn in May to $17.37bn by mid-August 2024. This suggests that, over the longer term, investors are still accumulating Bitcoin through ETFs, reflecting a generally optimistic outlook, particularly during periods of lower volatility.
3. Impact of market events: The large inflows, particularly around May and July 2024, likely correspond to major market events or positive developments, such as Bitcoin ETF approvals or favorable regulatory news. Conversely, the outflows could be attributed to market corrections, profit-taking, or broader economic uncertainties affecting investor confidence.
4. Recent sentiment decline: The most recent data for August 2024 shows a notable outflow of $169.03m on 9 August, followed by a smaller inflow of $32.58m on 16 August. This shift suggests that sentiment may be cooling as investors possibly reassess their positions amid evolving market conditions or in response to external economic factors.

So, while there is a strong underlying accumulation of Bitcoin through ETFs, sentiment is highly reactive to market conditions, leading to significant weekly fluctuations. Investors appear to be cautiously optimistic but remain quick to adjust their positions in response to short-term market movements.

What's the bottom line?

The prospects for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in 2024 remain cautiously optimistic but uncertain. The 2024 Bitcoin halving has reinforced the scarcity and long-term value narrative, but its immediate price impact has been tempered by other significant market factors, such as the influence of Bitcoin ETFs and macroeconomic conditions. While institutional adoption through ETFs and renewed whale accumulation signal positive momentum, the market remains volatile, with sentiment fluctuating in response to both internal and external economic events.

The critical factors that could push Bitcoin towards the $100,000 mark include further regulatory approvals, favorable economic conditions, and continued institutional interest. However, investors should be prepared for potential setbacks, as seen in previous cycles where price surges were often followed by corrections. Ultimately, reaching the $100,000 milestone will depend on a confluence of these elements, making it both an exciting and unpredictable journey for Bitcoin in 2024.