Altseason: When Is The Next Altcoin Season In 2025?

Key market indicators suggest an altcoin season may be imminent in Q2 2025 — but not confirmed yet.

As of 9 May 2025, crypto markets are closely watching for signs of an altcoin season. While Bitcoin remains the dominant force in the market, analysts point to several technical and macroeconomic indicators suggesting a rotation into major altcoins could be on the horizon.

Altcoin season refers to periods when alternative cryptocurrencies — such as Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and Avalanche — outperform Bitcoin over sustained periods. Typically, it follows strong Bitcoin rallies and coincides with increased risk appetite and improving liquidity conditions.

Bitcoin dominance near historic highs

Bitcoin’s market dominance— its share of the total crypto market cap — has climbed to around 65%, its highest level since 2021. Analysts consider this a critical resistance level. Historically, when Bitcoin dominance peaks at these levels, capital tends to rotate into altcoins. The current uptrend in BTC dominance has been steady since late 2024, but technical indicators now suggest a potential reversal.

Market watchers note the presence of a rising wedge pattern on the BTC dominance chart — typically a bearish signal. If dominance begins to fall meaningfully in the coming weeks, it would mark the first strong confirmation that an altcoin rally is gaining traction.

Ethereum and Solana show early strength

Some large-cap altcoins have already begun to show signs of outperformance. Ethereum’s ETH/BTC ratio has risen approximately 2% in early May, and trading volume surged to $12.8billion, a 4.2% daily increase. Ethereum network activity also increased, with active addresses growing 8% week-over-week.

Solana followed a similar path. SOL climbed above its 50-day moving average in early May and saw trading volumes rise to nearly $3bn. Analysts view this as an early sign that traders are beginning to rotate into selected altcoins with strong fundamentals.

However, despite recent upticks, the broader altcoin market remains well below its 2024 highs. The total altcoin market cap (excluding Bitcoin) has declined nearly 50% from its peak. 

The Altcoin Season Index, a measure of how many top altcoins outperform BTC over 90 days, currently stands at just 24 — well below the threshold of 75 needed to confirm a true altseason.

Macro conditions begin to shift

Macroeconomic trends may soon provide support for altcoins. The Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady at elevated levels, but analysts anticipate cuts could begin by late 2025. Globally, central banks such as the People’s Bank of China have already begun easing policies and increasing liquidity.

Historically, altcoins tend to outperform in low-interest, high-liquidity environments. The recent rally in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, driven by improving investor sentiment, has further boosted risk-on assets. As traditional markets rebound, appetite for higher-beta assets like altcoins may increase.

Still, risks remain. If inflation unexpectedly rises or if rate cuts are delayed, altcoin momentum could stall. Tight liquidity has consistently suppressed altcoin performance since late 2023, with traders favoring Bitcoin as a safer bet in a volatile environment.

Regulatory environment improves

Regulatory clarity is another factor influencing altcoin confidence. In Europe, the MiCA framework has created a compliant environment for token issuance and exchange operations. This has led to the delisting of non-compliant tokens and a more trusted market for institutional entry.

In the US, early signs of regulatory softening are emerging. Courts and agencies are slowly providing more concrete definitions distinguishing utility tokens from securities. 

There is also growing speculation that the SEC could approve spot altcoin ETFs for assets beyond Ethereum in the near future — a move that could trigger institutional flows into high-cap altcoins.

Altcoin season outlook: Close, but not confirmed

While several leading indicators — technical patterns, volume surges in majors, improving macro and regulatory signals — point toward a possible altcoin season, most analysts agree the shift hasn’t fully materialized.

The turning point likely hinges on a sustained drop in Bitcoin dominance, broader capital rotation into altcoins, and continued macro easing. If these conditions align, a more defined altcoin rally could emerge in the second half of 2025. For now, investors remain cautious, but optimistic.

To sum it up

The groundwork for the next altcoin season is forming, but confirmation requires more decisive market movement. Traders should monitor ETH/BTC strength, BTC dominance trends, and liquidity conditions as key triggers.