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OpenAI has today launched the latest version of their flagship large language model, ChatGPT o1 or Strawberry. According to the OpenAI team, this new version of GPT has advanced reasoning and critical thinking abilities beyond the scope of the previous models. Most interestingly, according to the release note, ChatGPT o1 scored 83% in the International Math Olympiad qualification exam, while the previous model only scored 13%.
So, OpenAI is branding this reasoning model as a true next-gen AI. While they only launched a preview version for now, we wanted to test how this advanced reasoning model could interpret and potentially project Bitcoin prices for the rest of 2024.
Here’s what we found.
Key takeaways
- OpenAI o1 model is more cautious in-terms of crypto price prediction compared to previous models. It provides a more analytical and multiple-scenario-driven answer when asked to produce a prediction.
- Based on current data, ChatGPT o1 is cautiously bullish on Bitcoin for Q4 2024.
- According to the AI, Bitcoin is likely to experience a positive trajectory for the rest of 2024 due to accumulation by long-term holders and improving market sentiment.
What is ChatGPT o1 Strawberry?
OpenAI has launched the preview version of ChatGPT o1, internally known as ‘Strawberry’, which represents a significant leap forward in reasoning capabilities. The o1 model is designed to handle more complex and nuanced tasks than the current GPT-4o model. It can perform intricate tasks like solving advanced mathematical problems, conducting in-depth research, and even generating high-quality synthetic data, which is vital for tasks like training future AI models.
The key difference between o1 (Strawberry) and the current 4o model is its enhanced ability to “think” through complex problems before generating a response. This reasoning-focused model series is intended to improve decision-making and problem-solving in areas such as science, math, and programming. Unlike GPT-4, which focuses more on generating high-quality text across a broad range of applications, o1 narrows in on reasoning capabilities and handling complex chains of thought. Another exciting feature is its ability to generate better structured, step-by-step outputs, making it more accurate for applications like coding assistance and real-time planning.
This new model, available to ChatGPT Plus and Team users, is expected to serve as a bridge between current generative models and future systems that emphasize agentic abilities—AI that can plan and act autonomously.
ChatGPT o1 Bitcoin price prediction
To make sure the AI model has all the latest data, we provided it with every single metric on the current BTC market. This included Bitcoin’s current price, transaction volume, daily/weekly/yearly price movements, fear and greed index score, HODL data from Glassnode, liquidity volume, and exchange transaction volume.
Based on this data, we asked the model to predict Bitcoin’s Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 prices.
Unlike previous models, ChatGPT o1 was reluctant to provide a straightforward prediction.
As of 13 September, the market capitalization of BTC stands at approximately $1.15trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $29.26billion, a 19.3% decrease from previous levels. According to the AI, this decline in trading volume might suggest a temporary reduction in market activity or investor interest. The circulating supply is nearing 19.75 million BTC, approaching the maximum supply limit, which could influence scarcity and demand dynamics.
We further probed the model to get a more straightforward response, and here’s what it said:
ChatGPT o1 is bullish on Bitcoin
Based on the current data and assuming no significant changes in regulations or institutional adoption, the outlook for Bitcoin for the rest of 2024 appears cautiously bullish.
Reasons for a bullish outlook (as per ChatGPT):
- Accumulation by long-term holders: Approximately 374,000 BTC has migrated into long-term holder status over the past three months, and 45% of all Bitcoin hasn’t moved from wallets in over six months. This indicates that investors are confident in Bitcoin’s long-term value and are choosing to hold rather than sell, reducing selling pressure in the market.
- Improving market sentiment: The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has risen from ‘Extreme Fear’ (22) last week to ‘Fear’ (32) currently. This suggests a gradual increase in investor confidence and a potential shift toward a more positive market sentiment.
- Recent price trends: Despite short-term fluctuations, Bitcoin has shown a 7-day increase of +4.1% and a substantial annual growth of +122.9%. The recent upward movement may indicate the beginning of a positive trend.
Factors to consider:
- Decreased trading volume: The 24-hour trading volume has decreased by 19.3% to about $29.26 billion, which could signal reduced market activity or investor interest in the short term.
- Short-term volatility: Over the past month, Bitcoin’s price has decreased by -4.7%, highlighting that volatility remains a significant factor in the cryptocurrency market.
Final statement from OpenAI’s most advanced reasoning model
Given the accumulation by long-term holders and the improving market sentiment, it seems that Bitcoin may experience a positive trajectory for the remainder of 2024. However, the decreased trading volume and recent short-term price declines suggest that investors should remain cautious. Overall, the data points toward a cautiously bullish outlook for Bitcoin through the end of the year.
