6 min read 
Trump’s tariff announcements have triggered a significant risk-off market response, driving gold prices to record highs due to strong safe-haven demand. Investor sentiment has clearly favored gold as a reliable refuge, reinforcing doubts around Bitcoin’s immediate viability as digital gold amid trade uncertainty.
US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcements continue to send shockwaves through global markets. Between February and April 2025, investors have grappled with heightened trade-war fears, provoking notable moves in traditional safe havens like gold and risk assets like Bitcoin.
In this article, we analyze the USD price trends of Bitcoin and gold over these three months, the prevailing market sentiment, and how investor behavior is diverging between these two assets in their roles as safe havens.
Bitcoin vs gold: Price movement trends in 2025
Bitcoin entered 2025 near record highs but began losing momentum through February amid emerging tariff tensions. By late February, technical analysts noted BTC had broken down below the ~$85,000 level from earlier highs above $100,000
In March, Bitcoin’s price fluctuated in a broad range (mid-$80ks), reflecting uncertainty as traders awaited clarity on trade policy. Volatility spiked in early April once Trump’s tariff plan was unveiled. Bitcoin briefly surged above $87,000 in the run-up to the announcement but plunged roughly 5% almost immediately after, falling back toward the low-$80,000s
In the first week of April – as the tariffs took effect – Bitcoin dipped below $82,000 before finding support around that level. Overall, BTC trended lower across February–April, with sharp sell-offs on tariff news outweighing any interim gains.
Gold’s trajectory was the mirror-opposite image of Bitcoin during this period. Escalating trade fears drove safe-haven demand, lifting gold prices steadily throughout February and March.
By late March 2025, spot gold had already surged to historic highs above $3,100 per ounce, marking an 18% year-to-date gain and the strongest quarterly performance for gold since 1986
On 3 April, as Trump confirmed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, gold spiked to a record $3,167.57/oz intraday. Immediately after reaching this peak, gold eased back to around $3,106 (still up ~16% for the year) as some traders took profits and sold bullion to cover margin calls from losses elsewhere
Importantly, despite that brief pullback, gold’s uptrend remained intact – it was still about $500 higher than at the start of 2025.
In short, from February through April, gold steadily climbed to uncharted levels, reflecting its status as a refuge amid the tariff turmoil. Gold’s price in early 2025 recorded its biggest quarterly increase since 1986, reflecting intense safe-haven inflows during the tariff uncertainty.
Market sentiment around gold and Bitcoin
Many traders and analysts openly questioned Bitcoin’s safe-haven status during the turmoil. A Bank of America fund manager survey circulated widely, showing an overwhelming preference for gold over Bitcoin in a trade-war scenario. Crypto enthusiasts acknowledged that, in the short run, Bitcoin was not yet a tariff safe haven, with its hedge narrative still maturing.
Meanwhile, gold was lauded as the asset ‘winning the trade war’, with finance Twitter users pointing out that central banks and institutions were piling into gold rather than crypto. Memes and discussions often referenced Bitcoin’s failure to decouple from equities: “Digital gold? Not this time,” was a common refrain as BTC fell in tandem with stock indexes. However, there was a minority bullish view in crypto circles – some argued that if the trade conflict worsened or undermined faith in fiat currencies, Bitcoin could eventually benefit (a longer-term play as an alternative store of value).
Overall though, the social media sentiment skewed towards skepticism about Bitcoin’s haven status in this episode, while affirming gold’s role as a reliable safe haven.
Professional analysts echoed these sentiments in their commentary. Market strategists stressed Bitcoin’s continued correlation with risk assets, noting that during the tariff-induced sell-off Bitcoin still trades like a risk asset during policy shocks.
Such observations were reinforced by data – the crypto market saw major futures liquidations (~$450m in a day) as volatility hit, indicating speculative positioning was being shaken out
At the same time, gold drew near-unanimous praise from market commentators. Analysts on financial TV and research notes pointed out that gold’s ‘safe-haven rally’ was underpinned by fundamentals: geopolitical uncertainty, trade-driven growth fears, and even central bank buying of gold to diversify away from the dollar
However, reports indicated steady inflows into Bitcoin ETFs even during the turmoil, as certain investors viewed the sub-$82,000 levels as an entry point for long-term holdings
This reflects that sentiment was not uniformly bearish on Bitcoin – a cohort of market participants maintained confidence in its long-run value proposition, even if 2025’s early trade war jitters showed its short-term vulnerability.
Safe-haven dynamics
According to the market data, it’s evident that investors treated gold as the go-to shelter amid the tariff chaos. Over these months, gold’s record-breaking rally was fueled by substantial institutional and central bank buying, as well as heavy inflows into gold-backed ETFs.
Notably, central banks doubled their physical gold purchases to diversify reserves away from the US dollar, a trend amplified by Trump’s aggressive trade stance. Gold’s appeal was multi-faceted: it’s a tangible asset free of credit risk.
Throughout February-April 2025, gold’s price moves were largely inverse to equities and crypto — when stock indexes and Bitcoin sank on tariff headlines, gold typically jumped. This negative correlation underlined gold’s role as a stabilizing asset: at one point, gold hit all-time highs even as global stocks entered correction territory.
In sum, gold lived up to its safe-haven reputation, with significant correlations observed between rising trade fears and gold’s price strength. Bitcoin, often dubbed ‘digital gold’, did not see the same kind of safe-haven inflows during the tariff scare.
Instead, Bitcoin’s price action correlated more with risk assets like tech stocks and high-beta equities. When tariff announcements hit in early April, BTC fell in tandem with the equity market, dropping ~4–5% over the week.
That said, it’s important to note that some investors still view Bitcoin as an emerging safe-haven asset in the long run. The absence of immediate haven flows to BTC in Feb–Apr 2025 may be due to its continued volatility and the fact that institutional adoption of Bitcoin as a hedge is still nascent.
FAQs
How did Trump’s 2025 tariffs affect Bitcoin and gold prices?
Trump’s 2025 tariffs sparked market volatility, causing gold prices to reach historic highs due to increased safe-haven demand, while Bitcoin prices fell significantly, trading closer to risk-sensitive assets.
Is Bitcoin or gold a better safe-haven investment during a recession?
During the 2025 U.S. tariff turmoil, gold significantly outperformed Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, demonstrating stronger resilience and investor confidence amid economic uncertainty.
Why did Bitcoin fall when gold rose after Trump’s tariff announcements in 2025?
Bitcoin declined because investors viewed it as a speculative asset rather than a protective store of value, resulting in price moves that closely mirrored stocks, unlike gold, which benefited from strong institutional and central bank buying.
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