Why The Future Of Crypto Depends On The 2024 US Election

In the 2024 US election, crypto policy has become a significant point of focus, with the two major candidates — Donald Trump and Kamala Harris — offering contrasting visions for the future of digital assets. 

In July of this year, we saw Donald Trump give a keynote speech at the Bitcoin conference in the middle of his campaign — while Kamala Harris has recently softened the Democrat’s stance on crypto regulations.

At the present moment, as the election night draws near, there is notable hype around how both candidates could potentially decide the future of crypto.

So, how is the crypto narrative evolving as we inch closer to the election? Are the voters actually seeing crypto as a pivotal point influencing their decision? Let’s take a closer look.

Key takeaways 

• Donald Trump supports deregulation and promises a more crypto-friendly environment, while Kamala Harris seeks a balanced regulatory approach, emphasizing consumer protection and increased oversight.
• Crypto ownership is significant among younger voters, making it a critical issue for candidates, particularly in battleground states.
• Bipartisan interest in cryptocurrency highlights its growing importance, with both Republicans and Democrats recognizing the need for clear crypto policies.
• The election will determine whether the U.S. takes a global leadership role in cryptocurrency or focuses on a cautious, regulated approach.

2024 US election: Summary of the Trump and Harris crypto policies

Donald Trump has positioned himself as a staunch advocate for cryptocurrency, particularly Bitcoin. He has pledged to deregulate the crypto industry, which he believes is suffering under the "anti-crypto crusade" of current regulatory frameworks. Trump's promises include firing SEC Chair Gary Gensler, whom he views as an obstacle to crypto growth, and establishing a US government Bitcoin reserve​. He opposes the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), arguing that they could infringe on financial privacy​.

In contrast, Kamala Harris seeks a more balanced approach. While her campaign aims to reset the Democratic Party’s strained relationship with the crypto sector, Harris advocates for clearer regulatory frameworks to protect consumers while fostering innovation​. Her campaign has reached out to major crypto companies like Coinbase and Ripple to establish a dialogue and potentially reform current regulations​. Recently, several crypto executives and investors have called out Harris for a softer stance on regulations, as the industry is planning to raise $100,000 for her campaign. 
 

Both candidates recognize the economic and political influence of the crypto industry, which includes millions of users and substantial lobbying power​. However, while Trump emphasizes deregulation, Harris focuses on striking a balance between innovation and consumer protection. This divide will play a critical role in shaping US crypto policy, depending on the outcome of the election.

How are US voters influenced by crypto? 

It’s important to understand that 41 million of Gen Z population will be eligible to vote in the US election, with more than eight million new voters potentially taking part in this election. Crypto ownership is largely concentrated in this population, which means candidates must consider this constituency, especially in battleground states. This demographic is highly sensitive to issues like inflation and financial freedom, both of which align closely with crypto's decentralized and deflationary nature, making it a focal point for the 2024 election. Here’s a closer look. 
 

 

1. Crypto as a hedge against inflation

The rise in cryptocurrency's popularity is closely tied to inflation concerns, which remain a top issue for voters. Bitcoin’s capped supply, for example, presents an appealing alternative to fiat currency in times of economic uncertainty. Nearly half of voters now expect crypto to be a part of their portfolio, up from 40% in 2023. This shift is largely driven by macroeconomic factors like inflation, geopolitical instability, and skepticism toward government monetary policies​. As inflation continues to dominate the electoral conversation, crypto is gaining ground as an asset that voters believe can preserve value against the declining purchasing power of the US dollar.

Bitcoin’s price surge in early 2024 highlights its appeal as a hedge against inflation. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs has contributed to broader adoption, further solidifying its relevance to voters concerned with the future of their financial security.

2. Bipartisan appeal

Both Republicans and Democrats show significant interest in cryptocurrency, with similar ownership rates across party lines (18% for Republicans, 19% for Democrats). This bipartisan interest highlights the growing importance of crypto in political discourse, as candidates from both parties must consider the views of crypto investors. Trump has capitalized on this by embracing pro-crypto rhetoric on the campaign trail, appealing to voters who distrust centralized institutions and prefer a more libertarian approach to finance​. 

Harris, while more cautious, has also engaged with crypto stakeholders, aiming to balance innovation with consumer protection. The bipartisan support for recent crypto legislation (e.g., FIT21 and SAB 121) reflects the political necessity of addressing this emerging issue without alienating a key voter base​.

So, the bipartisan nature of crypto ownership means candidates must navigate a complex political landscape where both regulation and innovation are key considerations.

3. Younger voters as a critical block

Gen Z and millennials, who make up a large portion of the crypto investor demographic, represent a crucial voting bloc in the 2024 election. These voters view crypto as the future of finance, and their increasing interest in digital assets signals a shift in how financial policies will shape their voting decisions. A study by Fairleigh Dickinson University shows that one in seven voters now own cryptocurrency, with younger voters disproportionately represented in this group​.

Coinbase has noted that candidates who aim to win in battleground states must account for the pro-crypto constituency. Voters in this demographic often prioritize innovation and financial autonomy over traditional economic policies. For this group, crypto is not just an investment but a symbol of a broader shift toward decentralized financial systems.

4. Distrust in traditional institutions

Many voters, especially those leaning libertarian or conservative, are drawn to crypto because of their distrust in traditional financial institutions. The 'libertarian ethos' driving the crypto movement aligns with broader anti-government sentiments, which makes crypto a fitting issue for candidates like Trump, who promote deregulation and a decentralized economy. This distrust also explains why crypto voters remain wary of heavy regulation, which they see as a threat to financial freedom.

5. Regulatory impact on voting behavior

Regulatory clarity is a major concern for crypto voters. The approval of ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum has expanded the crypto market, bringing in more traditional investors who had previously been hesitant due to regulatory uncertainty.

However, voters remain divided on how much regulation is necessary. Candidates who promise balanced regulation, promoting both innovation and consumer protection, are likely to gain support from crypto-curious voters.

How will the market be impacted post-election? 

• Regulation and compliance: The regulatory framework for crypto in the US remains fragmented. Donald Trump promises to reduce regulatory pressures, calling for less oversight from agencies like the SEC, which has taken a hard stance against several crypto firms. His focus on deregulation could lead to a more business-friendly environment, encouraging crypto startups to thrive in the US. Conversely, Kamala Harris supports a more structured and balanced regulatory approach, seeking to protect consumers without stifling innovation. If Harris wins, the crypto industry may face tighter rules, but clearer guidance on compliance could foster long-term stability.
• Global competitiveness: The candidate who wins will shape whether the US takes a leadership role in global cryptocurrency markets. Trump's vision of making the US a hub for Bitcoin and other digital assets includes establishing a government-backed Bitcoin reserve and positioning the US at the forefront of the crypto revolution. Harris, meanwhile, emphasizes engaging with international regulations and developing a comprehensive policy that could boost international collaboration.
• Economic impact: Cryptocurrencies play a growing role in financial innovation, with blockchain technology extending into sectors like fintech, cybersecurity, and decentralized finance (DeFi). How the US regulates or promotes these technologies will impact job creation, technological leadership, and the overall economy. Trump's deregulatory stance could accelerate crypto adoption, while Harris's policies may prioritize consumer safety and fraud prevention, offering a more cautious but stable path forward.
• Taxation and financial freedom: Another critical issue is how cryptocurrencies are taxed. Both candidates differ in their approach to crypto taxation, which will impact investors and businesses alike. The outcome of this election will shape whether taxation policies remain stringent or are adjusted to accommodate the unique nature of digital assets.

Final thoughts

In summary, the 2024 US election will determine whether the US becomes a global leader in cryptocurrency innovation or takes a more cautious approach focused on regulation and consumer protection. This election could redefine the crypto industry’s regulatory landscape, influencing its adoption and growth for years to come.